Modeling Themes
Population and System Forecasting
CEG specializes in the development of computer models that anticipate how the decisions we make and actions we take affect future ecological conditions. Our staff have a history of developing forecasting models that link landscape, habitat, species traits, and population conditions to forecast how small and large changes can re-shape ecological systems.
Species Trajectories
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We build dynamic forecasting models that include population demography, movement behavior, and species stressors to simulate population response to environmental and management change. Read about our work constructing stressor-species forecast models for 5 at-risk species.
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We’re modeling interactions among species through space and time in terrestrial and aquatic systems, for various applications including assessing the feasibility of conservation translocations for northern spotted owls who compete with barred owls. Read more.
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Species abundance is tied to landscape conditions. We conduct habitat capacity assessments and set population targets using models that link population size with habitat conditions. Our work assessing habitat capacity for the Humboldt marten is one example.
Landscape Change
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We analyze past landscape changes to project future conditions and build tools to project changes. CEG built a wildfire simulator tool for habitat-disturbance forecasting. Read more.
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Landscape and habitat restoration can improve population trajectories. CEG develops models that scope the benefits of improvements for wildlife recovery and identifies the most effective recovery action scenarios. We’ve developed return on investment models for a range of species including the greater sage-grouse in Canada. Check out our publication.
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CEG uses climate projections to quantify the range of potential environmental, habitat, and population changes. We developed climate-informed habitat and population models for terrestrial species in western North America and projected range and abundance changes over a century of climate change. Publication coming soon.
Patterns & Processes
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CEG uses environmental mapping, animal behavior analyses, and simulation modeling to assess animal movements and population connectivity. Read more about our Greater sage-grouse example in the northern Great Plains.
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CEG develops analyses and information products to make decisions on how to resist, accept, and contain the spread of disease and invasive species. CEG and partners are modeling the spread of invasive bass and crayfish populations in an Oregon river system and its potential impact on native salmon. Read more.
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We use spatial population models to simulate the genetic implications of management actions, including conservation translocations. See our owl project or eco-evolutionary dynamics publication.
Decision Support
CEG builds analyses and translation tools to support clients in understanding the ecological costs and benefits of (in)actions and changes. Insights gained from these products help bring scientific rigor to the decision-making process.
Forecasting Management & Policy Implications
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CEG creates integrative analyses to assess the expected ecological return on environmental investments. See our work on the population benefits of restoring habitat. Read more here.
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We use scenario-based analyses to compare strategies, policies, and quantify uncertainties. We are using this approach to evaluate the feasibility of conservation translocations and the impacts of multiple stressors. Read more here.
Visualizing & Prioritizing
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We conduct basic to advanced spatial mapping to describe patterns and changes. See our sage mapping and vulnerability assessment for the Northern Great plains. Read more here.
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CEG develops visual tools to prioritize the selection of sites, including optimization frameworks and interactive tools. Learn about our tools here.